The portfolio allocation effects of investor sentiment about the ability of managers to beat the market

I present a model that can transform discounts on closed-end mutual funds into a measure of investor sentiment about the ability of fund managers to beat the market. This measure of sentiment varies positively with capital flows into actively managed open-end mutual funds, but negatively with capital flows into passively managed index funds. Investors appear to re-allocate their portfolios between actively and passively managed investment vehicles based on expectations about by how much managers will beat or trail the market.