Do Immigrant Inflows Affect Native Location Decisions?

This paper investigates the relationship between immigrant inflows and native outflows in US metropolitan areas, using data from the Current Population Survey during the period from 2005-2014. Simple linear regression suggests a significant positive effect of immigrant population growth on native population growth at the metropolitan level. Native and immigrant location decisions are likely driven by similar socio-economic variables. To correct for this endogeneity, lagged immigrant share and predicted immigrant inflows are used as instruments for the relative growth rate of immigrants. These instrumental variables models do not find evidence that immigrants have prompted native outflows. Even after stratifying by education, there is little evidence that immigrant inflows contribute to a decline in the native population.